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Saturday, February 28, 2015

Handling Winners Friday Feb 27

It is the motto that I have when trading:
Don't count how many green days I have in a row,
but count how many days in a row I do not brake my trading rules.
Id suggest to read this first before going further
See Handling The Losers

So this is day No 3.
It was just one of those boring days with couple of boring trades , and I really wish this could continue forever.
JCP , CLNE and SPLK
I chose them  primarily because of the much above average volume, starting as of pre -market

JCP was a total no brainier, got long on the pull back after the initial push out of the gate 8.11 laser precision entry used time and sales  prints.( I was twitting only the CLNE trade so my buddies will not confused with too much information)
The idea was to buy long since it  was basing into great daily support area .8.00 end of November, mid January and mid February. Clear swing highs if you look at the daily chart and some consolidation during  February. Was not very sure still if this may run all day like it did , so took profit selling into the first pop 8.20. At this point I was still not sure if the 8.07 low will hold, but felt good that I took the profit and observed Time N Sales knowing that I can always re -enter  if price action confirms. I re-entered again long at  8.18  on speculation this higher low 8.13 may hold, which at same time was my risk definition just like I did yesterday when I had few small  losers.

Once it cleared the 8.20 and made NHOD , I was looking for the next pull back to define my tighter risk which  was 8.30. The NHOD made me feel more confident , since the trade was basing from the 8.00 daily level, and the volume today was much greater, way above average.
I did sweat out here when it hit twice 8.30 and made double higher lows. Then it made  NHOD which totally made me confident to stay in this winner and be more patient knowing the 8.30 is my exit if goes south.Then  the  new higher low 8.35 was made,  after which  the trade was on a cruise control till I sold entire position at 8.55 in the small wash leaving a lot of money on the table , but grateful for what ever market gave me. I am not even woried any more like in the old days , about the money I left on the table.Why? Because most of the times that home run will not happen, at least not for me. My risk was 7 or 8c took profit  above 30 cents on this second entry , and the first was 9 cents gain.
I like when the reward was 5 times the risk.What esle I could ask for?
That's the reason why I closed it all  although JCP went all the way to 8.90!!
Great trade , all good,  no mistakes and I was  in total emotional control.


JCP daily                      JCP 1 minute

CLNE long trade
Pre-market very active trading on above average volume , and above major daily level 5.40s which was a swing high Dec 23  and Feb 13. In a hindsight Id always buy at least small starter position at the drop towards the 5.40 support , right out of the gate , but I didn't this time since I wanted to take the smallest risk possible and be an example of good rule trader for my buddy.
I had JCP , CLNE and SPLK on my main focus. I like to keep watching few stocks simultaneously without flipping screens and listen to www.radiomela.it .
Long on first pull back 5.67 with risk below this first higher low 5.59 exited 5.84 after the flag was broken downwards. Very good risk reward, risked 7 cents took 14. This wil never happen ( for me ) trading a stock on regular average volume. Id get chopped out most of the time. Been chopped out so much so I got the nick name DaChopa, not that I'am any good at it , but being annihilated by chopping myself to death. $7,000 loser on BAC trying to get a momentum on average trading day on average volume  is lesson well learned and way way well over paid.
Next entry was with wider risk,  since the break out on the daily on such volume was too convincing for me that this could  make NHOD. I ve seen it too often. This  is one of the highest probability long trade in my book considering the massive volume. Was driving and monitoring the trade form my phone. So twitting was dangerous.
CLNE flag to be either broken up ( to stay long ) or down  ( to take profit ) 


Forming the bullish flag, or ABCD, or triangle or so .


And so it did go to NHOD and trailed the stop with confidence .
If I was a good chopper, Id be scalping the pops and buying the dips , but need a lot more practice and speed for it. I am feeling good doing it the way I do so far. That will be my next step in future.

SPLK I didnt enter a long  
I watched it and had the vision on how to enter, but  pure luck I did not enter or I was gonna take a loss. which still would have been OK,  IMO.

SPLK visual plan 


Salut  !

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Handling Losers $ATOS, $CYBX

Losing is part of trading that is unavoidable.
 I am very well aware of it . when trading I can not control the market, its direction, or anything the market is doing . I can only control my reaction to the market movements which nobody can predict them with 100 % certainty. So,  all I can do is manage my risk , and my loses. Today was a perfect example how a trader can survive after being dead wrong, by simply having a plan on how to minimize the losses.

I had a red day today, but felt totally OK with it.
Regardless weather the trade is a winner or a loser , I always ask myself 3 question in order to determine weather it was a good trade or bad trade:

1) Was my criteria choosing the stock satisfied?
2) Was my entry per my plan with acceptable risk reward?
3) Did I take small planned loss or did something stupid? Did I take profit when I could or when I had to?

Trade No1 ATOS long
1) It was right stock to trade , it did satisfy my criteria : Big above avrg vol most important, to propel a solid move in any direction.
2) Yes , entry was on a pull back after higher lows and higher highs, with good risk reward.
3) Yes the loss was per plan, I obeyed it and considering the drop  ATOS made , I consider this  trade as an absolute winner, since saved me from huge loss had I kept and hoped to go "my way" I abandoned the idea for long when higher lows were violated.

The trade was good trade.


ATOS 10 cents los  2.52 stopped 2.42
Note in a hindsight: ( I write this few days later after re-reading my journal): i NOW  noticed the daily chart !!! The ticker was well overextended when I entered the long trade, almost 80% in two days. More important; it was overextended into major swing high resistance !!! Very difficult to be broken after huge run up. Had I noticed this when I was trading it, I would have probably flipped the losing long trade into short. This is my favorite short set up anyway, my bread and butter trade.

Trade No2 CRMD
1) Did not have the right volume to go long , but did have a very good daily and 15min  chart set up, a bullish flag with very high probability. Sized small just because of lower volume .
2) The entry was so so, did not wait for pull back  since it was on verge to go higher from  5.27 long
3) Did I take profit per planned risk reward? I planned for highr gain risk was 25 cents so really wanted a 50c gain or more. But  it showed weakness at 5.50 per chart and took profit same as risk 1:1 rr. So yes I traded the chart, and the price action , I did not wait to go to 6.00 , so I did not trade my wishes hopes and emotions .  I was not greedy so :

Yes the trade was good trade, it was not just  lucky trade done against  my rules.
 CRMD long 5.27 sold 5.45


CRMD daily               15 min bullish flag
Trade No3 CYBX
1)  It did have the huge vol
2.) The entry was good at a pull back on higher lows, 75.86 although my plan during pre market was to enter against 72.00 mark as a good support on daily chart. Missed that entry which was gonna be good green trade. But no regrets since the entry later was OK, buying the pullback with tight stop.
3)  I obeyed the stop and saved me from big loses had I kept hoping for a come back.

It was a good trade


CYBX good long loser

Trade No 4
CRM
1) Yes
2) Yes waited for break to confirm lower low after lower highs,got short on pull up
3) Br Even exit . not so well , should have lock in gains when dropped to LOD,

I re-shorted again 69.40 on pull up , stopped with 15c loss , a good stop, since saved me from much bigger loss.

The trade was ok , but not too good since did not lock in profit at LOD.
CRM 2 x short Br Ev and loss 15 cents



To conclude:
I was dead wrong with 2 trades regarding the  directions: ATOS and CYBX but managed to minimize the losses very well.
I was right on CRMD and on CRM but did not execute well  profit taking on CRM
There are days when I am dead right, like previous few  days, but still a lot of room for improvement

Note: Taking profits, Locking Gains when it cams to a good target  /LOD Exmple/

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

BNFT long trade same old boring set up

My motto today was keep trading less and execute well only the simplest and most boring set ups.
So I did only 2 trades long on BNFT

BNFT was just like ANGI  BIOC last two days.
This set up, going long stock ( ABCD called by some gurus) proves great risk reward ratio.
After trading and writing all sorts of scenarios , keeping track of what works and what doesn't, trading size that kept my account safe, a certain thing have been  sticking out repetitively over and over again.
The mistakes become obvious, the good  moves  stick out to the surface.
Writing them and read back is the key.
 I reflect after each trading day , after each trade, by trading  less I gain by far more and more.

To recap what I need for a good trade:
1) Big mover  on big above average volume
2) Obey intra day trend /higher lows, higher highs, vice verse,/
3) Daily major support resistances for  major inflection points to target low risk entries.
4) Defined areas of risk and religiously obeying it

Why I need this ?
I explained here in my email to my buddy that I published it as my first post


Picture is worth million  words  so here is BNFT long trade, comments are all posted on twitter real time

BNFT first long 34.25

BNFT trailing stop 35.00  


BNFT focusing on new entry for long. Patiently waiting to come closer to 34.00 daily support

BNFT long 34.80ish . Id say this is chase in a hindsight , but when I entered didn look like chase Im far from perfect but trying hard , stop 34.00 area

BNFT managet to sweat out this drop having the vision .Experience ?

BNFT trailed stop without emotions today, pure price action at its best. Took decent gain

BNFT daily                                   1 Minute      



Resemblance ? The patience  to wait for same thing to happen over and over again  improved my trading tremendously.
Who cares about the ticker 
Who cares about the ticker 
Who cares about the ticker 

That is my favorite long set up , and this is My Favorite Short Set Up
And I stick to what works the best for me . 

Tip for my buddies:
 If you dont know how to find big mover, research the volume pre market and first minutes from the open or simply trade the ones that have been on big volume a day or week prior, overextended, confirm the vol today to be  as close or higher then the prev days

Rince and repeat tomorrow again the same thing. Boring but it works for me.

Salute !

Tuesday, February 24, 2015

On Watch Feb 25, $EYES $CHGG $VRS $COT $DEPO $FLWS

$EYES $CHGG $VRS $COT $DEPO  $FLWS

$FLWS would really like to see it dropping towards the 11.00 area and time the bounce with minimal risk. Volume first 5 min to be as close or higher then prev day.

$DEPO intraday looks like bullish flag, if breaks above 23.00 will look to buy pull backs against PDH, It is on historic high, it may take off and grind slowly higher and higher, hope we have enough shorts to get some momentum squeeze, then short if good opportunity on confirmed lower highs only if above PDH. I will not short if below PDH. Tight  stops , and  re-entry is what I will focus on .

All the rest  would be great to open gap up , push out of the gate and possible short the tops.
Lets see if there will be any chasers.
Salute !

One simple rule that improved my trading

I am taking a day off from trading today. But I cant help it not to get involved at least with something, like reading other traders journals. I think it is even better then just buying  some book on trading or at least it is great in addition to reading trading books, since it is more tangible and more real time feel for the trading,  in the immediate present time with ongoing  moves in the markets.

Here is one thing I'd like to comment on @JeromeFreyheit blog daytradingbeginner.com.

 that improved my trading significantly

ANGI the boring trade
ANGI Feb 23, 2015 Monday
When I figured I need to buy the dips rather then the break outs, it was the first improvement, since the chasing I did dramatically was reduced.
However just buying the dips was not enough.
Which dips do I buy?
What relay works the best for me is to be more patient, and to wait until the lower lows will end.
As long as there is lower lows, and lower highs, there is a downtrend.
It is not big deal even if I buy any of those lows, ( I can always get lucky) as long as I can stay focused , eliminate the emotions when get stopped, and look for next entry. But that is the hard part. Once you get stopped, you are human you have feelings and is hard to stay in check, you want your money back ASAP.

If you are patient, and wait to see the lower lows come to an end first, your mind is still clear , emotions intact. Confirmation of higher high after the lower low is the key. I do not just buy the high, I do not chase it. I wait for that pull back for the first higher low. The odds so far have been so much better entering long there , then buying the lower low as it was done in this ANGI boring stock :). It is never a guarantee for successful trade , but if I get stopped on it, I do not feel bad. And now someone will say : But what if such set up doesn't come , I will be without  a trade all day ?!?
The answer is: they almost always come in play , almost every single day and if you just do this one and only set up, and nothing else most likely two thing will happen:
1) You do not trade, so you don't lose money
2) If the set up occurs, you will be so relaxed, since you didn't do anything all day , you didn't overtrade you dont have losses to mess with your head, and the chances are much higher you may end with a green day. Even if it is one trade,  one set up one green day !!

Today BIOC is the same exact thing as ANGI yesterday . I can go back every day and find one of those. Who really needs more?? I didn't trade it , but saw it on my phone while in bed, and twitted it while it was dropping after the open.

BIOC ready for ABCD
BIOC today vol vs avg vol
BIOC  higher lows
I know this looks too simple , and too obvious , but trading is simple, and should be simple.
Define the risk, consider it will be a loser so yo size properly, and pull the trigger.
Find the big movers with big above average volume, put few of those on your monitors, some good music  Radio Mela ME , chill,  wait and relax till you see what you are waiting for  :)
It works, way much better then jumping all over the place trying "not to miss" on anything that moves.
This was me long  time ago. I had so many of this screen shots that was embarrassing, so I deleted most of them, but found few in my old PC, used LightSpeedTrading then.

The first few years was like this


then something started to work, ( really , who does this?!?)


After I started to eliminate what doesn't work.



and a break through / consistency/  trading ONE set up


The key is :if you have the right stocks , big movers, strong volume , 
stay with them and watch em all day , and you will get that one set up.
Do this for a month and keep track , take notes of everything , including how 
you feeling and all your emotions. Be your own shrink.
Salute !

Excellent question from a new trader

The Question:
"Hi, 

Yesterday I discovered your blog through the comments you made on averagejoetraders blog. I found it interesting and helpful like his. After about 2-3 months now of trying to make some money trading I feel as though I've learnt a lot but am yet to be profitable! The good news is I haven't blown up an account or lost much either yet. The thing that keeps me going is that I am utterly determined to make this work and the fact that every successful trader I follow has blown up their account when they started out so I understand it's normal for people to start out like this!

Anyway after scrapping the ideas I have been trying last week I decided I would try follow someone else's plan to see if my interpretation of the days price action would be that different to someone more successful. So I put THRX, CRIS, CYBR and HZNT up. HZNT opened weak as you said you would be looking for and I saw what you saw on the daily chart. I was going to just watch but I ended up trading tiny size (100 shares) instead. I concentrated on the level 2 much more than I do usually to try and see the things you mention in your blog - the ask being hit with size and orders stacking up. I saw both these things as well as the stock gearing for a 18.75 breakout which it eventually did. I thought it would go beyond 19 today but wasn't to be. My initial entry was not so good because I kept placing an order on the bid then kept missing out as the stock rose higher! Anyway I've included the chart so you can see my entries and exits.

I also included 2 other charts from today which represent an on going problem for me and wondered if you have an opinion - is a ticker gearing up (ABCDing as Nate says) or is it a double/triple top!?

CRMD - the daily is clearly extended. There's the big push out the gate to 5.45 this morning then the pull back... then the push around 11.45 to HOD again. Now I'm thinking I could short this up here as a double top with a tight stop... then I think no it could be gearing for a fast burst over this resistance to 6 and beyond and it has 'midday strength' -something I am wary of and I end up not trading at all.

CLDX - similar thing. Push out the gate then pull back (a lot this time almost to LODs) then climbs to HODs where I think Hmm short for double top with tight risk? Chicken out of that then watch it drop then rise for a third time and I think again hmm  triple top? I could short? But no this must be gearing for a move higher and I don't do anything again and watch it drop!

Anyways I hope I don't bore you too much with my long email, I am just trying to learn this stuff and I decided I should try communicate a little with other traders - something I don't do... and thanks for the blog, it's been helpful as you can see from today!"
HZNP
CRMD
CLDX
The Answer:
It seems you are by far way more advanced already since you understand what the trading is all about. 
HZNP you did just fine, just do not try to get filled on the bid when its fast moving  stock. I really wanted to have it dropped lower, closer to 17.50 ( daily support) because then I am more comfortable with bigger size, and I have more room to confirm the bounce from 17.50 ( or so) with higher lows and higher highs. Notice on your first entry you had lower highs and lower lows,it could have easily been a loser trade, but I guess the Time N Sales gave you a better clue.
Second entry was much better , since you  had higher high and you nailed that pullback very well, the pull back became your risk, and reward was great selling it with almost 3:1 ratio. It could have gone higher then 19.00 but who cares ???   You made your money twice on the same stock, CLOSE THE SHOP  :))

CRMD: ABCDs work the best in scenarios like for example HZNP if it had dropped closer to 17.50 and then creating ABCD would be very favorable long  trade.Why? Because 17.50 is great daily support , a base, from where it has good launch pad to go very high. CRMD, was already well overextended , as you noticed!! Opened with push up above PDH, , and looking to short was a good idea specially after the second lower high, then you could cover some , then short the third lower high, in and out cover some. I was short too late , made mistake, as you red my blog, and when it didn't hold the HOD , dropped below 5.40, that was a sign of weakness , plus the Time n Sale prints were the clue again for more favorable short, let alone the daily overextended condition.

CLDX: This gapper , on her first day up, was trading above 24.00 which was daily resistance. Always,  have the daily chart next to the minute chart  draw the main support line of the daily in this case , 24.00 on BOTH charts. After the pull back and testing the 24.00 you could have watched for any long entry with risk against the 24.
I normally wouldn't short the double top, because it is the first day , may run much higher, and even if it doesn't , and even if the short may work, I think the downside is very limited most of the times. However what ever you do , even if you shorted it, this type of stock is big mover, as long as you have your stop tight , you have not much to worry about.The secret of day trading is the BIG MOVERS. Less choppiness,  risk can be the same as any other stock ,but much higher momentum move when you nail the right entry.

What you read in this entire blog is all you need to know about day trading technicals.  The rest of it is the battle with the emotions, and discipline to execute efficiently, which is the hardest part  for most  traders. 
Hope this help, and if it does, would love to hear about your progress.
Salute !

*Here is a little bonus tip ( trick) for those who red this boring stuff so far :)
 When there is a fast moving stock, and I want to get filled long in expectation to catch a momentum move up with bigger size, I sometimes throw in a 100 shares at the bid just to see if they gonna get filled. If I cant get filled at the bid a tiny size, that is a green light there is a momentum building up for long , and I go with size at the ask. If I get filled at the bid, then that means trouble for going long. 

Monday, February 23, 2015

Monday Feb 23 trading

The BLDP swing short , massed me up when news was announced this AM .
BLDP gapped up and almost all  gains from short swing trade  2.87  were wiped out. I kept watching it for good exit which I did ok , covered it at 2.67 with  20 c gain.  Not bad and I cant say I did anything wrong, since I can not predict if a news may be announced. However that  was enough to to throw me out of focus and missed great set ups/like  HZNP long , BIOC long CLDX  long. ARIA long. Was not mentally focused on enough tickers. Did only two trades:

CRMD short
I shorted twice first time got hit with 29c loss, more then planned , so I did crappy on that THINKING my idea to drop 50 cents or a whole $1.00 must work, since it is so overextended. Nothing MUST work. No matter how overextended stock is, it can go twice or triple or more the "wrong way".
So I did not cut my loss as I normally do which is :

  • either I am instantly in green or 
  • if I am not in green I give it very short time to prove me wrong and if it does, I am out with the thought in mind  I CAN ALWAYS RE-ENTER, at same or even better price if squeezes higher.Which it did, and got stopped from my entry 5.13 all the way 5.42 , with 29 c loss. 

I forgot  to ASK MYSELF THE 2 QUESTIONS...  LOL I forgot ?? Who da' crack am I lying to ?!?
I did ask myself but the "something else"   made  me not execute as I suppose to.
After the loss I took another short 5.35 saying to myself:
 "I do not need to make up for the 29c loss on one trade. I can do it in few trades as long as I can stay focused and execute  few good entries on so many great set ups today".


I even tweeted it, so my friends can learn what I preach to myself

It is the most powerful rule I've heard from @modern_rock

 I covered 5.20 into the first wash , then re-entered 5.30 again .. Or I didnt ?
I WISH IF I DID THAT but I did not!!!
Hoped to have the big short trade the home run , all the opposite as I was saying to myfrign'self.
Luckily it worked out  and made 14 cents back on the second drop to 5.20.
The point here is: I'm writing my thoughts , my alter ego conning me and lying to me, my second me , my enemy withing , that tries to keep me at my corporate job by doing this dumb mistakes over and over again. But now that I write it all , and after I read it later before I go to sleep, I hope that one day I will be a perfect trader.
This is not the first time I've written this, the same mistakes, and the truth of the matter is: writing my entire trades , not only the entries and the exits , but the whole process of what I was thinking, doing, and how I was feeling, is of absolute help in my trading.
I have improved a lot , far from perfect, and more I write and more I read what I wrote,  including reading the journals of other traders like   Ed Martin's for example is the best weapon against the "force" that is there watching, and waiting for me to screw up.
It is the same thing over and over again;
The same two set ups that I trade, the same mistakes, the same charts, but different tickers,the same emotions, feelings, it is all the same and there is no reason for not becoming a perfect trader once I clearly know what the challenge is. There is no better way (for me) to identify the challenge then to constantly write about it, and read it over and over again. There is no shrink that can help you better then you can help yourself, simply by identifying the problems by yourself in anyway you can.

  • For me is:  to write it and then read it.

 There is nothing and nobody that can  stop me except myself. And thanx to all the good traders there that share without expecting anything in return like @modern_rock @johnwelshtrades    that in way confirm that everything is possible if you put enough hard work in it .

CRMD  5.13 short 
CRMD stopped with 29 cent loss 5.42
CRMD second time short 5.35
CRMD took profit on second drop to 5.21

The other trade was short STXS , 2.80 , luckily I got filled on small size , was very iliquid and got out at  break even. It was just on my watch list , happen to be on my monitor, but hey it did not do what expected and got out. Not bad I am happy with it.
Now I will take a one day brake and will trade again on Wednesday/
Salute



Sunday, February 22, 2015

On Watch Feb 23, Monday THRX

There are few big movers I will be watching on Monday
THRX , CRIS, CYBR  HZNP  CYBR.

THRX  May do the same as WPRT did on Feb 10. Approached to daily swing resistance 19.00 will look for gap up and short the weakness from 19.00
WPRT Daily


CRIS after a significant run up, is consolidating under 3.50 major swing high, may break above and if strong  volume it  could be a long, although short play is possible too
CRIS daily                            CRIS hourly


HZNP  broke and closed above major  18.00 Will look for weak open and low risk higher low entries on pull backs
HZNP

TXMD either weak open  for long or parabolic up move towards the 6.00 or higher to short

TXMD


CYBR will look for  gap up and parabolic up move to short the weaker tops


Saturday, February 21, 2015

BLDP a wining trade update

BLDP 

I  used My Favorite Trade Set Up learned form @modern_rock to enter short BLDP
The partial left size short  will be closed if it trades above PDH (Prev Day High) on Monday. If it will continue down  I will definitely close it before they report earnings on Feb 25th  Wednesday.

Here is BLDP on day of entry short Feb 13
BLDP short entry 
Here is BLDP  on Friday Feb 20
BLDP trailing the exit on the partial small position
Note: Check out all the good news posted during these drop down days..hmmm
Salute

$SFUN losing trade recap and volume note


SFUN long trade
It seems like I always forget to mention the volume as a very important factor in trading. And I think it is so important that I assume that everybody knows. However my few friends I write this for, ( and for me personalty  to keep reading it from time to time to keep me in check) , may not put enough attention to this.
Initially SFUN broke above major short term resistance $7 ,  7.20 area on increased volume. After a better then expected earnings ( estimated 0.13 and actual 0.21 EPS) .
 I took it long 7.30 against 7.20 support at first, watched it all day tick by tick how it was trading with time and sales prints, initially trade was positive, went long 7.30 went up to 7.40 , just to see it next day on Friday dropping quickly into my risk stop level 7.20 , got stopped 7.17. Then I Re-enterd couple of times

SFUN stop loss No1 at 7.17
SFUN took long 7.09  with very tight stop the triple bottom created intra day
SFUN stopped out with 2 cents loss, not holding the triple bottom, knowing that from here may severally drop much lower , since obviously so far the 7.20 is not holding, and knowing that I can re-enter if this changes and trades upwards again. Not letting to have big loser is prime though on my mind, and writing about it just reinforces my discipline. The re-entry option is still in plan, since the main idea I am trading this stock is still valid, and the possibility for SFUN to stay above 7.00 after the higher volume break out on Wednesday Feb 17 is still intact.
SFUN re-entry long 7.11 again risk LOD
The watch list for Friday the 20th did not give me any good entries My Favorite Set Up did not occur  no entries that I would have felt comfortable with so I stayed focused on this SFUN trade. It may look like I got stubborn, but the general long swing idea is still  unchanged as long as SFUN holds 7.00. The drop towards 7.00 was  on very low volume after the break above 7.00 on higher volume. I may be totally wrong , SFUN may make new monthly low from here, so I play safe with very limited risk and size I can afford to lose. Up side may easily shot up towards $8 which makes descent risk vs reward
I can not control where the stock can go , but I can control my action upon the stock movement. This is the only one business that depends only on myself , my decisions my action, my responsibility, and there i nobody else I can blame if lose big. So lose small, stay in business rule number 1.
SFUN initial entry day loong



SFUN second day of the trade

If on Monday doesn't give any positive close, or increased volume , or it doesn't show strength I will abandon this long idea. 
I may not even trade anything else until this trade is completed , weather winner or loser. Trading is a marathon not a sprint.
Writing about a loosing trade and I handle is what mostly improved my trading. The wining trade is just a winner, no harm could be done. How I handle the losers I think is way more important.
In every trade I get in , I consider to may be a loser and I do all I can to protect my capital from losing trade.

Salute

Recap Friday Feb 20 trading $SFUN $WMT

I had SFUN swing overnight long  and WMT overnight small position  short.
WMT:
 I covered pre-market 82.70 short from avg 84.00 which is $1,30 gain on $80 stock, perr planned target since 83.00 was daily swing resistance. Happy for the good trade. I try to remember the good trades as well as the bad ones.
And there have been far less good trade set ups then the bad ones. I have just a handful of good set ups I am comfortable with, and a tons of bad ones. But when the good ones keep repeating , it feels great in sense  of accomplishment and results of hard work. 



WMT short entries and partial cover on Thursday

WMT fully covered on Friday pre-market
Observation: The move of WMT was after the earning report on Thursday pre -market. Better then expected earnings, normally would be a BUY fundamental signal. But price action indicated short term SELL. After I covered the entire position WMT went all the way up and closed 84.27, above my short entry of 84.00. Will it continue to go up from here ? Do I really care? My style is day-trade and very short term swing trades, with goal every week to be a payday if possible. Long  term investing is not for me, I don't like to have position sitting in red, and wait months to make 10% on such investment. Market is so volatile that catching the few percent gains on each trade every day adds up. For one stock to go up lets say 30% a year , that stock will make so many 10% swing moves up and down as well as  intraday moves that if reading the price action and managing the losses efficiently, the profitability can be  much higher. Of course if someone has also the time to spend watching every day full time. What I believe in is not and shall not be how other should believe. I like to share how I trade, since there are people who like this style of trading.

SFUN  was twitted real time, as I took couple of small loses, I have re-entered again at 7.11 and I keep this trade over night again.
I may update more details how and why I traded SFUN the way I did if I have time or if anybody wants to hear.

Thursday, February 19, 2015

Recap Feb 19 $SFUN $WMT, and watch list for feb 20, Friday

SFUN
 Long term big picture : downtrend all the way to 5 year support level 6.00 after which short term trend is upwards with close above 7.00, holding short term support 7.20.
SFUN weekly 
 On Wednesday Feb 18 ( yesterday ) broke above 7.20 on above average volume and closed above 7.20. So 7.20 became a support and defines me the risk for long trade. The plan was to wait for pull back towards the 7.20 to get in long,
SFUN Daily
 I entered 7.30 average.

SFUN 2 day 5 min 
My risk is 7.20 so 10 cents I am willing to lose  with potential to gain 30 cents or more. The stock tried 5 or 6 times to break above 7.20 past 30 days  or so
Finally when it did it closed 2 days in a raw above 7.20, and today is having an INSIDE DAY ( powerful pattern / indicating a consolidation before potential explosive move ).
I am comfortable with the size, comfortable that I can lose 10c, Although depending on how it will open tomorrow I will tighten up the stop. I never ever widen the initial risk after I enter a trade. ONLY LOWER THE RISK, use every up move to reduce the risk.
The size is appropriate with the overnight risk I can sustain, in event of major news, a disaster, nuclear war or so ...pardon if nuclear war all I have to worry about is not to lose my sward :)). In other word, let's say the stock drops 50%, that loss shall be not more then 10% of my acct. Do I really practice that? Maybe I will when I become  Warren Buffet. Till then I understand trading is risky and yes I may lose a lot more then per plan. Over-Night exposure can make the loss lot bigger then the planned 10 cents.  But hey, its OK  with me as long as I am aware of it. During the trading session, I observed the time and sales closely. I noticed there were lot bigger size printing at the ask, spatially  after every pull back. Also I noticed when a big prints were at the bid, price was moving a tick up. I think that is absorption by somebody. I believe somebody was quietly loading up during this inside day, and I believe tomorrow or day after SFUN may pop above 7.50 , which was PDH (Previous Day High) after which will have a clear pathway to 8.00. Along the way I will lock in some gains. That's the plan if I am right. If I am wrong, I already explained at first: risk is 10 cents below 7.20, or so depends how it will trade near that area, if it does so.

WMT
Pre-market big volume today , they reported earning, or so, I did not even bother reading the news at that time, because it may just confuse my reading of the price action, which was clearly short biased. So  I looked to go short which I did in partials.

WMT short 84.00

Now that I red the ER, hmm SO GLAD I DID NOT READ IT IN THE AM   :). Earnings were better then estimated , so a normal mind would be a buyer , not seller. Lost a lot of money before in the past trading by the meaning of the news. Price action is what I go by. No other indicators !!! I want the most clear and most simple picture on the chart. Clean desk, clean chart, clean mind.

WMT daily , intra-day 1 min

Was I 100% sure this short will work out ? No way , that is never 100% possible. So what did I go by? Here is my thinking and reading the price action:
1) Huge volume pre-market, expecting a nice move during the session, for a day trade
2) 84.00 major swing low daily
3) Over under 84.00 will be the battle, will it hold will it break?
After open 3-4 min into the open , broke the LOD  so it was my short entry. I say I do not like to enter break outs, but when volume is so above average , there is a chance to truly miss the drop, so I entered small size just to be in , and get the feel for for it. I said I will add if it goes to HOD ( High Of Day) with risk HOD, on entire position.

Will add close to ( near ) high of day I meant

It went up to 84.20, then 84.30, was looking to go to HOD to add but never did.  Instead , it dropped all the way down to LOD, where made double bottom. Mistake here I'm talking in hind sight, I should have would have taken profit, but my size was so small I figured , "let it break LOD and drop more to lock it in, and then to short again on pull up at better price"

My real time thought

  After the double bottom, went up to 8.30. and made double top with previous intra-day high 8.30. The idea I had was: I will add to my short , so I can have better size , with risk above the double top, 8.30. So I added more size 84.18

Added short 84.18
WMT 1 min , adding short  84.18  avg 84.09

I decreased the original risk ( tightened the tolerance for loss), the HOD is no more my original risk level , just because the 8.30 double top was newly created resistance that allowed me to risk without sweating much.I  NEVER WIDEN THE RISK once I am in trade  ONLY TIGHTEN IT.

  • The trading is game of losing. So lose less, while allowing to make more.

I know and plan that every trade will be a loser , no matter how much I wish,  I want,  I love and I expect  it to go my way. Can I live with myself if I lose X amount of dollars?  Can I be comfortable losing that much? Can I buy food tomorrow if I lose today? This sounds boring to me too, as well as to whoever reads this,  but I have lost a lot, till I learned this the hard way. I am much more comfortable shorting then longing, so I primarily focused on the SFUN trade watching every tick , every print, every Level2 market maker (MM), how are they stacked,  the size of the bids the offers, the prints. Cant help it , love doing it. When I am wrong and when I lose, it  is really frustrating, and hard to bear the fact that I spent all day watching tick by tick , analyzing every possible scenario , watching new support resistances as they are created , and at the end I am having a red day. It is a hard work, so I try to at least simplify it to the  dumbest level so I stay rested instead of exhausted.

I covered most of the WMT 83.70 and left small size over night (risk break even ), since the price action tells me this has room to go lower maybe gap down tomorrow off the gate or so.  Daily chart next support is 83.00 which is my target.  Or break even if it starts moving up.

WMT covered 2/3 size
I expected to have much bigger move down, having the volume traded way above the average, but I ll take what ever I can take. Still far from perfect trading , there were much better plays today , but I stuck to just two. Any green day is a good day.

From my watch list there were no gap up opens , none gave me My Favorite Set Up  so is the reason I traded just those two.

Tomorrow on watch for short EGRX, ARRS, NMBL, THRX, ASTI,
1) Daily overextended
2) Gap up open with possible parabolic move up out of the gate
3) If there is run into daily resistance level over / under is a plus
4) Short first weakness, tight stops unless I have plan to add and size in smaller positions
It may look like a lot of tickers, but I will eliminate those that will not open with gap up, so right out off the gate I will know what to focus on.

For long :
TRUE need a weak open pull back to 20 as near as possible then long with risk 20.00 or so
UPL need a weak open pull back to 16 as near as possible then long with risk 16.00 or so
PEIX need break above 10.00 to hold 10.00 and long with risk 10.00 or so
AMRN if holds 1.40 maybe a long, if good volume .
Usually for those it takes more time till some of them drops , pulls back to the risk defined level.
It is not big deal to observe them when they are all spread over my monitors, so I don't even need to flip any other charts. This is relaxing set up and I know exactly what to look for.

I love talking strategies , so if anyone have something to say lets talk. Any good traders out there please share your thoughts where and how I can improve. Need to quit my corporate job.
I almost quit trading myself after huge losses in the past , but traders like @Modern_rock @EpicaCapital  @InvestorsLive  @Lx21 @johnwelshtrades   @OzarkTrades  @elkwood66
 inspired me and
Thank you all.
Salute!






Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Recap Trades Feb 18, CLF ONCY Watch list for Feb 19 Thursday

CLF swing got out on break even. 6.90 Long , exited 6.90. It did not hold the 7.00 after it spiked up to 7.28 HOD. Do not feel comfortable holding the stock that 2 days in a row could not close above $7.00 . It may do so tomorrow but not gonna deal with it.  There are plenty of other stocks that can give me an instant green day after an entry to hold for swing. I can use the money for those. I'd rather have my money make money then sit and do nothing , let alone to be in red, specially after the fact that CLF gave me 5% return in a day that I did not take looking to have a longer term swing trade. Again the tough is: If I can make 5% in a day , every day , what else and how much more do I need? After all the risk was  10c to make 38c , 1:4 risk reward in my book is always TAKE IT ! I trade the ticker the set up , and then the fundamentals. I can find those every day , yes it takes some work, but making money requires work, and which work can give you unlimited potential by doing same amount of work? Next time : if I have in mind swing trade but it gives you substantial gain the same day or teh next day , take it, or lock in partial, at least get paid. ( How many times I said this to myself and same mistake over and over again , enough already!!!)

CLF the entry 6.90


CLF break even exit



ONCY scalp short
MY FAVORITE SET UP  works like a clockwork, do only this trades and you can make a living: overextended daily , opens with gap up  and then short the weaker tops,
ONCY short 0.80
ONCY near LOD

https://twitter.com/DaChopa/status/568081169834602496


Was prepared to cover this into the wash per plan, but I covered little too late .

ONCY  covered  by trailing the stop not bad after all

ANGI stopped out , good trade obeyed the stop 

ANGI was pre market very active , 500,000 shares vol pre -market, average daily volume was 700,000 so we knew it will be a BIG MOVER today ended up trading over 20mil shares today , but got in too late, was thinking and speculating if it will hold the 7.00 after it tested it, it did held but did not act upon the thought, because I was THINKING it may brake below 7.00 and then to short . TOO MUCH THINKING is not TOO GOOD. Look at the price action , let the price tell you what to do . It was a strong stock , retraced to 7.00, should have would have bought against the 7.00 risking  15 cents, but I didnt.
Next time THINK LESS, READ PRICE ACTION MORE !!! Who knows maybe one day I will have a perfect day.

For tomorrow will look again for overextended tickers ( notice I mention TICKERS , not COMPANIES, trading is about price action of the ticker , fundamentals are secondary and more important for long term investments

On watch ONNN SFUN ANGI EGRX NKA ANTH TTS  MNTA need a gap up open rally then short the weakness,
NETE may be a great long break out , need to hold 1.40
MASI may be a long if weak open and look for higher lows , low risk entries ,  pullbacks,
The higher lows, ar ABCD that some gurus call those , same thing just different package .
And what ever comes in as overextended big gainer form today and past few days on over 1 million daily volume for good liquidity , wait for gap up open , possible spike up out off the gate and knock em down at the first weakness. Tight stop so you don't lose, and if you don't lose then sky is the limit.
KISS Keep It Simple Stupid, make sure a 10 yr can understand your strategy and you are gonna be fine.
Salute !!!