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Saturday, February 14, 2015

CLF possible long play swing

 So Ben my man, good luck on your pick CLF, welcome back to the trading arena LOL. Looks like it may be a good  swing long.  I personalty seldom take swing positions, since  on a good day-trade set up you can make great returns as well you get instant gratification by timing a good entry.
 ( see my 1st post Stocks to trade or 20% gain in a day WPRT). I might actually take CLF long with ya :) 

Great last earnings too. Feb 3rd report beat all the expectations, went to $8.00 in pre-market, pulled back, consolidated in a flag between 6.00 and 6.80 and  on Friday 
traded  above 6.80 break out , so the 6.80 should become support with room to go to 7.5 as first target and 8.00 second near term target.  Solid Risk vs Reward ratio.
Here is daily and 30 min chart.

CLF daily
CLF 1 hr
Just gotta find good entry and I will use 6.80 as risk level. That's me , you know I use stops.If opens with gap up on Tuesday I wont chase it. I will wait  for pull back to drop as much as it can closer to 6.80.  Then I will look  for higher lows on 1 min or 5 min chart maybe confirmed with higher high. On daily I will look for overhead resistance to take profit and buy back again on pull back at better price. Look again higher lows , no chase, no rush. First resistance is 7.50 on daily or  8.00 considering Feb 3rd pre-market topping action
Good pick !!!

What concerns me a bit  is your plan to keep the stock even if it drops to 5.00 to add more and bail out on rally to 7.00. You called that a "hedge". What's the worst case if it doesn't go to $7 after it falls to $5? If it falls to $5 may fall to $3.
Hedge means  " protecting your investment" 
Adding to a loser is exposing yourself to more loses, it is not really  a hedging . Learned it the hard way myself.
Taking a small loss if drops below 6.80 might be a better idea. But again that's me.

A big factor to consider is the time. When trading, time is of essence. If  CLF it drops below 6.80 and then keeps dropping to 5s , it will take time. Your money is in red. Time goes by and you are still in red. When / if / comes down
to 5.00 it is no guarantee it may go back to $7 at least not quickly. That's is 40% gain to go back to 7.00. And will take more time. Days or weeks maybe months.
Cutting you loss short , below 6.80 , will allow you to use your money for other trades immediately. Cutting small loses also means saving time.

And dont forget :Trading is a business. Plan the trade , trade the plan.
Salut ! And my plan is this : 
CLF 5 min 

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