I was looking for runners with high momentum to short , preferably that ran several days, just happen to see GLNG with nice momentum on its first day break out of nice bullish daily flag.
So that was the reason why I decided to go long , although in my past experience more of those trades do no work. We as humans we remember the good ones that may have exploded but we forget the ones that didn't work. But once in a while I give it try to see if that may have changed. The majority of the traders I know make the money shorting. And when I started to focus on shorting I stopped the years of losing streak. In shorting I have one fixed known fact: There are longs who are in profits and they will take it soon or a later, When long , out of tons of break outs like GLNG just few will move higher. So how do I know which ones will? I DON'T . But it is a gamble that I take from time to time so be it.
My stop is wider here 49.50
....
GLNG as I have said before , longs break outs barely ever work consistently. They just really suck and to get that one runner like ISR or the PBMD yesterday I will lose on dousens of others longs ..So is it really worth it longing ? Am I trading to few bucks or to be right and get the glory bragging about one home run ?!? And what is really the worst I am seeing few other awesome shorts that I am missing just because I am in this long that shakes my emotional state of mind, and may just call it a day. So Let's hope this may turnaround using a wide stop
Shorted based upon daily resistance channel.
I could easily get out here with 3 to 4 cents loss ad re-enter again if drops 33.78 but I think it may just chop up n down here because ER is AH. So keeping stop at 33.92 and we ll see how it goes
SHAK
There are many strategies to make money trading stocks, longs short break outs pull backs, reversals , continuations e.c.t.
There are several strategies I use to short stock, my favorite few are these:
1) Overextended tickers, where I know there are longs ready to take profits after nice quick gains in short time ( example SHAK today)
2) A major resistance break outs that are actually a fake outs ( on those I lost tons of money going long and hoping to be right). These are the ones where lot of longs pile up buying the break out per all the text books ( LOL I am laughing cause I was one of them in the past, reading books on trading)
Example GLNG OSK today lower slides.
I can not emphasize how reading your own book of your own trading is the most important book I ever red and I am still READING it every day! My own PnL is the best teacher, trial and error , what I feel on my skin hurts the most and teaches me the best lessons ever. Hope some new traders can learn from my experience and cut the learning curve for many years of wasted time let alone the lost money .Karma !
AAP
this Earning winner got too overstated , that usually fades before sees new highs
Few examples of fake brake outs here :
OSK
Notice the great daily bull flag, when SPY near historic high.
Great long right?
But what happens when there is a sign it may be a fake out?
Will you grab that opportunity ?
GLNG
Same as OSK
I even went long on this just to prove my point ( which is only my opinion , nobody has to take my word for it, just judge on your own)
'Nuf said Yeremiya!!
Salute
Did you try shorting PBMD on the squeeze day? if no, can you please explain why you stayed away from it. I blew up my account shorting it.
ReplyDeletePBMD was first on my watch list to short it. I did not short it because there were no borrows, and if I did short it, speaking in hindsight, I'd most definitely have planed stop loss just like all my other trades. Lot of times when stock moves a lot I short in such a rush that I'm afraid to miss the drop, and if the drop that I was afraid I'd miss just doesn't happen, then I immediately get out on just few ticks against me.
DeleteRemember: I RUSHED IN IT NOT TO MISS IT..and it went against me..So what was the reason I rushed in it? Does that reason still exist once I got in it? NO !!! So why shall I be in it?
What is the worst that can happen if I immediately get out then? It may turn around quickly again and drop , so I could re-enter again , burn some commissions, and it may go back up again which will means it is just choppy and there is nothing from the expected down move. In case I get out right away and the stock keeps going up , then I feel like a winner, not having my acct blown away. I know it is easier said then done, but takes time and lot of practice to do this type of trading. Sorry to hear for your loss, but remember the lesson. I've blown plenty of accounts in the same fashion , so I can assure you, you are not alone now. One of the best traders lost $370,000 on that trade. Now the Q is : is he one of the best , having such failure?
Practice trading with small size, practice getting in n out quickly without focusing in PnL till it becomes totally a second nature, something that you do without thinking ... like breathing. After your loss two things can happen: you either never trade again, or come back stronger, wiser with a focus more on how to protect your acct rather then focusing on the money you may make. Find a good strategy, but first protect your money, then you will be able to make money if using the right strategy.
Hope this helps .
Cheers
PBMD was first on my watch list to short it. I did not short it because there were no borrows, and if I did short it, speaking in hindsight, I'd most definitely have planed stop loss just like all my other trades. Lot of times when stock moves a lot I short in such a rush that I'm afraid to miss the drop, and if the drop that I was afraid I'd miss just doesn't happen, then I immediately get out on just few ticks against me.
ReplyDeleteRemember: I RUSHED IN IT NOT TO MISS IT..and it went against me..So what was the reason I rushed in it? Does that reason still exist once I got in it? NO !!! So why shall I be in it?
What is the worst that can happen if I immediately get out then? It may turn around quickly again and drop , so I could re-enter again , burn some commissions, and it may go back up again which will means it is just choppy and there is nothing from the expected down move. In case I get out right away and the stock keeps going up , then I feel like a winner, not having my acct blown away. I know it is easier said then done, but takes time and lot of practice to do this type of trading. Sorry to hear for your loss, but remember the lesson. I've blown plenty of accounts in the same fashion , so I can assure you, you are not alone now. One of the best traders lost $370,000 on that trade. Now the Q is : is he one of the best , having such failure?
Practice trading with small size, practice getting in n out quickly without focusing in PnL till it becomes totally a second nature, something that you do without thinking ... like breathing. After your loss two things can happen: you either never trade again, or come back stronger, wiser with a focus more on how to protect your acct rather then focusing on the money you may make. Find a good strategy, but first protect your money, then you will be able to make money if using the right strategy.
Hope this helps .
Cheers
Thanks alot. My major failure was not putting in a hard stop...anyway, i definitely plan to start trading again soon.
ReplyDeleteYou're my virtual mentor, I'm learning alot from you.
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