The main idea in my shorting is: FOLLOW THE LONGS that are in serious gains from their swing long positions, watch when is more probable that they are about to take profits , and the short when they are selling.
Well ASNA is none of that !
It had some crazy down move yesterday, so are there any longs who are willing to take profits today?
NOPE.
So it is just one of those days when I get stubborn and I just wanna be right. Why? Because I've done this before and I DID GET LUCKY BEFORE.
So just getting lucky on a trade is not a strategy. I will read this several times this week. Hope I get to learn my own lesson.
Some thoughts on the difference between long and short;
When going long on stock , and get stopped out, I more often lose the conviction the stock may go up again. Simply because I do not know who will be a buyer later on. However, when I go short on stock and get stopped out, the conviction that the stock will drop is just getting greater. Simply because there are more long holders who have even bigger gains to take. I am referring this to stocks that are well overextended in a very short time, where the shift of the momentum can cause significant panic among the long holders.
SWKS
Now this is risky trade since it is on yearly high, but calculating the risk is what makes this short doable. I have the factors that I did not have in the ASNA, which is longs happy to take some gains. I am not shorting this as swing since it may gap up tomorrow knowing the market conditions but a momo day trade may work out ..we'll see...
Awesome stuff. I am indebted to you for sharing so much. I am a novice but 150%+ committed to becoming succesful. I have a couple of questions on your ASNA trade. Hindsight is 20/20 but please bear with me. I placed daily & weekly pivot points of S/R on the chart & noticed that 1st R was 14.89. I have done this in the past just very recently (not traded) but observing, & have found it to be quite a low risk good probability indicator using the 2& 5 min charts with RSI & BB. Why not short at 10:18 @14.86 (.01 below the close of previous 1 min candle with a stop .03 above the R level?) The other best entry according to weekly pivot S/R points would have been @11:10 at the breakdown below14.89 & stop .02 above HOD which would have been flat for most of the day. Not profitable but less likely to fail. Your thoughts?
ReplyDeleteI see your point. First we do not know if it will get there at 14.86, RSI divergence was apparent, and confirmation was also there in the time and sales, however I was wrong. It is not my usual set up but decided to take it because saw potential to drop. In any way , waiting to come closer to the pivot S and R is always a great choice of patience. If it doesn't , there will be another stock that will :) . Being selective and patient is what makes the difference from a pro and rookie :) .Glad you find my inputs helpful thanx for you comment , it does make a lot of sense.
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