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Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Red Day taking some beating from EXPE

EXPE 

Now this is great "good losing trade"  to elaborate
It might get confusing why I took short when it opened above the PDC above the 20 SMA and the 200 SMA.
The markets have been running with gaps ( SPY) 3 days in a row. EXPE  had  gap up with enough distance to travel back to 20 sma which would just made my day . As I twitted,  the ideal entry was narrow 2 min opening candle and short at the break below with  risk above it.
The opening candle was not broken below.
The second candle had a nice wick rejecting the 110 level round number. Those were  my short entries lows 109s and high 108s.  The main level to watch was the daily pivot 109.17 area from Jan 22. weather will hold or not

EXPE shorting the wick 2 min bar

Since this was  the 3rd day SPY gaping up,  going LONG on such occasion for me is not the best option  because more often I lost my shirt doing that rather then making any consistent gains on such chasing longs.
It went back up above 109.17 and my reference  point for risk was HOD so I built some more shorts towards the HOD with mental stop above it.
EXPE avg 109.50

The 2 min red candle hit the HOD but I needed a confirmation to cover and take the loss. 
Having the entire plan ahead of time is crucial so  I have something to follow  and execute without thinking 
The plan for exit: The next  2 min candle could  break below it, which would keep me short with target LOD and avg short 109.50s, However it broke the high and I covered. On some rare occasions I may flip the trade long, but just because the market has been already overextend  I obey my rule not to chase it.  Stopping out was the right thing to do, and this trade goes in the book of  "GOOD LOSING TRADES"
Had it gone to LOD or even lower,  a gain of  $2,000 to $3,000 winner was gonna give me a nice Green Day  and would have made many "followers happy" reading about it. However it is just amazing how all my post about Red Days  are visited 4  times less then the ones titled "Green Day". No wander 90% of traders lose money  :) 
It is amazing how many people are more excited on wining trades rather then losing, with no understanding that once you are in a  winning trade there is really NOTHING you can do, you may take more or less profit or so...  Trading is all about what you do when you lose,  how you take your loses, weather you take your loses or get stubborn,  and what you do right after you take a  loss. 

Here is what EXPE did after I cut my loss:
EXPE the good losing trade 2 min chart

EXPE eod  5 min chart 

Note the pivot 109.17 with double bottom and narrow 5 min candle taken out for long trade but it was just not for me 



Salute 
@DaChopa




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