I know many other will agree for a simple reason: I have lost sooo many times everything I made in the first hour and a lot more towards the end of the day. It is the opening hour when trading is smooth, has nice momentum and direction for quite good portion of the stock's ATR. And this is how a good day turns into a bad day; The pace that I make the gains in the open is so quick, and looks so easy ( speaking for myself) . My mind tends to think : "OK this is great I can do this all day long... if I made $500 in 15 min I can make $5,000 till end of day" ...just to see it losing the morning gains, and then the emotions kick in big time thinking: "... daaamn I was up $500 so easily , let me just make the $500 back and I will call it a day ..." Next thing I see I am down some more since the momentum disappears, choppiness takes over and I tend to "create" set ups ..more I lose more frustrated I get, more stupid trades I do. and I lose even more.
ABX
I saw ABX gaping in the PM. I know ABX is big cap stock, but in case if I am not sure, when I trade cheaper stocks I always check the FLOAT on yahoo finance looking at THE KEY STATISTICS so I can avoid any situations like KBIO recently, when many traders blew up their accounts. Not because I do not know how to get stooped out, but it takes very little to start believe that the stock "MUST COME DOWN " and even the greatest trading minds can break their rules and blow up big time. If I disobey my stop on ABX while shorting it, the worst that can happen it may go against me 1 or 2 ATRs but not 10 20 or 30 ATRS like KBIO did ..So I will still be OK even if I do a stupid mistake being stubborn and keep shorting it and covering the dips all day long while it goes up against me. I will lose but will not blow up. PROTECTING MY ACCT IS #1 PRIORITY knowing myself I can do very stupid decisions no matter how UP I AM FOR THE WEEK or for THE MONTH.
To conclude this last paragraph: I like to trade large cap stocks like ABX, FB, AAPL, TSLA, HD, ect. to protect myself from blow up even if I do a very dumb mistake. You wanna trade penny stocks? Go ahead but make sure you obey your stops, obey your rules and all your trading principals, and know that even the greatest traders sometimes tend to disobey and break them all. Blowing acct is bad, but losing your life over it is really really bad ..Look what happen to Jesse Livermore. If the greatest traders of all times lost it all , then who I am to stand chance not lose it all?
When I trade I know I may lose everything at any time. If you are novice I think the odds to break your rules are much greater. Been there.. done that... many times ...over and over again. Know yourself who you are first and foremost, because your are your own biggest enemy when risking your own money,
ABX Today's intra-day opening price action . being above the raising 20 and 200 SMA shows clear long bias set up IF IT WAS coming out of DAILY BREAK OUT channel or if it had several ( 3 to 5 ) consecutive days downtrend.
However ABX daily showed strong uptrend many green daily bars up trend , and opening with gap up. I would never go long in this situation, not because it will not go higher, but simply that is my rule that I obey. I lost enough chasing high fliers in the past. The plan was to short the first 2 min break down. It did not break down, it did break on the upside. NO LONG for me here. Second 2 min bar was a wick and I started shorting at the end of the 4 min from the open, seeing the wick of the second 2 min candle. (usually means rejection of higher prices ). I wanted to add more short if low of the wick 2 min candle was broken.
ABX first initial short 12.02
It did not break, but went higher and broke the high. Here I did not use stop, but if it was a LOW FLOAT STOCK like KBIO I would most definitely use stop before it sky rockets several ATRs against me. With ABX a $1 billion float stock, the odds for that are very very small so seeing it going against me was not a big mental issue.
Now comes reading the price action , at which most people ( fundamental investors, laugh at ) .
Price moves higher but I am not adding any shorts since I see no daily resistance near by. But I know at one point there will be an exhaustion it can not go up forever , not 1 billion float stock. It can go parabolic up yes, but I know the ATR I know the stock, I know how much it can surprise me so I am ready for the worst. At on point I see another 2 min wick candle but now I wait for it to be broken to really load up size
ABX waiting to break the 2 min wick candle
And here is the second entry :
ABX the load up short target LOW OD DAY 1:3 risk reward but in this case that was not too important because I was ready to keep shorting even if it went higher.
But for novice a stop above HOD would be essential, specially if under-capitalized.
Somebody asked me how do I get in such position? Hit the bid? Or sell at ask? Market order ? Limit order?
In these situations when I have to get in quickly on a break , I hit limit order BELOW the BID price. I do take liquidity out and pay highest commissions /fees, but I do get filled at the best price. After I am in, I layer the exit orders at below the market adding liquidity and getting paid rebates. Target 1:1 1:2 1:3 if you know what I mean.
ABX covers layered out at bid below the market
The second round of shorting came in after the break of the low of this green 2 min candle.
ABX recycling
Somebody asked me how and why I shorted , there was no clear set up. Like I said in my prev post, I can trade each day till the end of the year different ways and still will not be enough to explain it all. But to be consistent green I think all I need is just one or two solid set ups. With time, by mastering one set up at a time with small size, exercising extreme patience there is a chance to become better trader.
Using simple "candle bar reading" helps me a lot. Reading pure price action eliminates the need for "thinking" hence using my own mind for "opinions" becomes absolute. Now If I am trying so hard to ignore my own mind, do you think I would listen to the opinions on TV ? CNBC, Cramer , and all the entire financial gurus?
ABX the second round of covering
The circled arrows are orders placed but never got filled, since price did not drop there.
ABX covered all recycled trades made more cents then the range the stock made
I will comment on the COST, a trade I did not take but saw it clearly and hesitated to get long since I promised myself not to trade today any more.
Look at this pure price action , nice and clean with exact calculated risk based on candle reading:
1) 143.25 intra-day pivot,
2) conforming with the 200 sma on 5 min ,
3) inside red candle with low at the same pivot,
4) rising 20 sma.
Four major confluent factors, all technical no guessing, no opinions, just reading price action
I know it is in hindsight now but I did see it and it is worth mentioning it .
COST
Entry would be break above inside red candle, risking below the candle's low.
If only trailed the exit at the next break of the low of the 5 min candle the gains would have been monstrous. Of course Id lock in gains , but even if left small tiny position with trailing exit candle by candle low, the gains would be fantastic comparing to any risk.
COST
Here is the break I twitted red to green, the green line is PDC ( Prev Day Close) at 144.00 rounded number.
The entry long above the inside candle with risk below, and baaaam freight train in action.
COST end of day
It was fun writing this, and will be more fun reading it this weekend, the best trading book: my own trading journal. Enjoy it, and if you find it interesting drop a comment
Happy trading
@DaChopa
I may start posting swing trading positions, it s kind of boring but if enough people are interested drop a comment and let me know.
Best post yet imo
ReplyDeleteBest post yet imo
ReplyDeleteThnx glad you can understand it :) hope it helps
DeleteFantastic read chop. Thanks for going over your order types. I really get the removing of liquidity on the entry and adding on the profit targets. Updating my keys tomorrow. Gorgeous analysis on $COST. Price action is so clean. I've been marking up my charts after market close. It really helps to see what works and when, and what to avoid. I'm starting to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Congrats on another profitable, well disciplined day.
ReplyDeleteWhatever doesn't work get out as quickly as you see it did not do the "working thing" .. For whatever ever works, not much you can do :) ...it just works
DeleteThank you for another great post AngelDan! I have a question, what's the reason you use 2-min candles for entry instead of 1-min, 3-min, or 5-min? What's your thesis behind only using the 2-min? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteIt really boils down to the volatility..at the open even 1 min candles can be very powerful. more into the day momentum dries down so bigger time frames work better for me.. Sometimes I even use 15 min bars. It is really up to your eye to figure what works the best for any given symbol. In my latest post FB gave a really clear entry noted here
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