Apr 9 CHOP the trade and DGLY TASR SFUN thoughts , plan for Apr 10

DGLY and TASR I am tempting to long them all morning but Im just not sure if they will attract much more buyers after me..So my odds are 50/50 to long them. But if in case they get there particulary DGLY  to 16.30 then I will know there will be longs with money in the pocket who may wanna lock in profits. So why risk , when I can have a better odds doing the more probable thing ?! SHORTING ! Well DGLY no borrows anyway.

                                                                      DGLY

TASR I really liked it to go up to 28.00 , so I can short it  and the temptation to go long was huge. But where I would enter long without being stopped few times?  That is the hard part. If got to 28.00 I'd have the easy part to do what all(most )  longs would do : SELL ( I'd Short ) . But it didn't get there.

                                                                   TASR
CHOP luckily did not chop me up it made my green day
CHOP the short called here 
CHOP the snap shot here

It was just well overextended , my buddy Yeremiya found it on FINVIZ , and we nailed it for 13 cents from the 1.53 entry.

                                                                     CHOP

                                                                  CHOP the cover
It feels great when The Real Master @LX21 confirms my thoughts with the fundamentals !!!

SFUN I like to put in my record a trades that I didn't take  too,  due to different excuses, like waking up too late and not being prepared , but my friend took this SFUN short and is exactly what I like to do mostly. Great risk reward done perfectly

                                                                      SFUN
JRJC Just an observation on a parabolic move up into daily resistance. If quick enough next time I may short it right at the top of the move without waiting for a weakness , MUST BE PARABILIC move into MAJOR RESISTANCE , and of cource focus more on trading then you tube.

Few ideas for April 10
LVS Do I have the patience to wait LVS to get to 61.50??

                                                            LVS
PBR will wait for this one too

                                                          PBR
MGM I will wait for it too

                                                          MGM

WFT the plan to wait also

                                                          WFT


Salute !!
Stay Green and Stay disciplined

April 8th MDR SFUN CWST tough shorting but green day is good

SFUN longs from the 6s may be taking profits,  is the idea for shorting.
First time I got stopped 7.49 to 7.55  upon pure MM manipulation to create a squeeze so longs can unload above 7.50. Over 500,000 shares were traded in that squeeze, and the volume spike may indicate the top is in place. So I am giving it a second try short 7.51 risking high of day. I can hardly believe this can go much higher before it has few days of consolidation around 7.50, and it is due for a pull back before it goes higher. I could be dead wrong so I  know my risk HOD. Looking to gain 20 cents or more that depends. This is only a  day trade.

                                                   SFUN  second short entry 7.51

Second short from 7.51 I covered with 14 cents gain at 7.37, and I did third short 7.48 anticipating crack below 7.35. It  traded very tough, like pulling a teeth sorta say. Stubborn longs just kept holding it.

                                   SFUN the third short 7.48 to 7.39 for 9 cents gain


MDR the short 4.74 had defined risk  vs reward , even draw the target line, but did not have the fishing order in place so covered 4.62  ( 12 cents gain) little too late but not bad considering it turned all around and went up for the day. This was a risky short trade based on double intraday tops, with weak open  ( quite scary for me ). I really wanted it to go above PDH ( prev day high) in order to short it.

MDR the short 4.74 

MDR the cover 4.62

CWST 

I had this on a watch but was so hesitant to short it since the volume was very low. But hey , when volume is low and if I am wrong how will I cover ??? But low volume also  that means there is no fuel to go higher. My buddy killed it , shorting it from 6.24 and covering below 6.10. He finally started reading my journal ( I originally started writing it for him, actually was tons of emails to him that I figure I  could  publish one and so it goes /  see my first post ) Eghhh just did not have the guts to do it. Trading is far from easy. But beats a clock in job most of the times. 

                                                                              CWST 

Today was mentally very hard for me. That SFUN fieww !! When I know the idea is right and trying to do right timing with tons of patience aint easy at all ..Wander how the option traders did today. I think it was a day for the writers of options not for the buyers...

Stay Green !!!

April 7, Shorting Daily Res. SFY WTI

Short SFY  2.79
2.80 looks like resistance on daily will cover with 1 or 2 cents loss if trades above 2.80.

SFY  risk reward 

THE DAILY   speaks it all.. And most importantly the L2 with Time &Sales prints. This is hard to explain but need a lot of observation . But first is finding the right inflection levels to trade off of them with limited risk. I do not put hard stops because if I did I'd be stopped out on SFY already. The prints at 7.82 were not convincing to get out of this short. Maybe later if it gains real buying I will take a small loss.  I'm ready to lose few pennies to make 10 c or more.

I had to cover with 4 cents loss 2.83 2.84. No reason to stay short for now. It may get much higher. I will not be surprised if it gets to 3.40 area these days . Admitting to be wrong is part of trading.

                                                                 SFY taking the loss

SFY update .
I did not take this short simply was not focused enough. But the idea was right on the money , went higher, squeezed some more, showed weakness , and the sell off was right  there for a 30 cents nice drop. Still worth taking a note to re-affirm my confidence in what I do.

                                                               SFY the short I did not take


WTI 
Many times I ask myself this: if I am waiting to get to 6.5 that means I could go long? Well if I go long here 6.25 and expect to make it to 6.50 and I do this with most of the other similar candidates, I will lose on maybe more then 50% of the time. Simply because  not all of them, will get there where  I like to short them. But those few that will get there , will be brought there by longs who will be glad to take their gains. And there will be me shorting with them selling taking their profits. It is that simple. Now do I have the patience to really wait for WTI to get to 6.50 ? that is the hardest part. So writing plans, taking photos,  drawing lines helps me to sit on my hands and to be patient. It works for me and helps people who like to read what I am sharing. So be patient it does pay off.

WTI in waiting 

WTI the short 6.34 covered 6.22 and the best part is the leaving money at the table . Ahhh well. 

WTI the short and the cover 

Apr 6, MDR CIG OREX BAS the winners

I did not take the OREX long because I did not see enough volume to propel it, however if I did this was gonna be my entry and the  risk vs reward day trade, as per plan made last week ,   click here to see OREX the plan for a day trade

                                                          OREX risk vs Reward 

MDR

Tried twice, first time got stopped , but second time had little bigger size since I was more convinced having the overhead resistance over under 4.50 , from the swing high some time ago ( Note daily chart)

                                                                MDR the short

Important NOTE to myself: the first try was mostly based on the time & sales prints, that were quite bigger size at the bid 4.33 then the prints at the ask. No lower lows no lower highs.I anticipated "cracking the bid " however the price moved a penny higher, I watched and "hoped" it will turn, then went another penny higher again I still did not exit , then after 5 pennies higher I had to cover for a loss 4.48. Not a big loss but could have been a smaller one. I clicked the sell button for a reason: not to miss the move lower, the drop. But it did not drop. What that means ??It was all absorbed by somebody who had fishing orders to buy at 4.33!!  it is simple as that. And he /she was adding liquidity at the bid. Who ever that was, congrats nice job well done !!

CIG 
This is just simple patience to wait  to get my best kill, by ignoring all the other action and opportunities flying by my eyes. Had this on watch, waited to get to the level I liked it 4.65 daily swing high (am I getting boring repeating myself  LOL), and it got there. Shorted the 4.63, was ready to take a few pennies loss, but the odds were way much in my favor. Covered 4.58 since it was near EOD, but I rally wanted to go much lower. Green is green Ill take it ..

                                                           CIG the short

BAS was great long too , I was waiting to go much higher to short it. Who ever longed it, great job above major 8.00 swing high. I just did not feel comfortable going long BAS after a nice run from the 7's. Have this nasty feeling of being overextended and will wait for this to go higher, for a short day -trade.

My ideas have nothing personal with investors who are long these stocks. I only play momentum, mostly on short side to make few bucks.

Salute and Stay green !

Apr 3 Long Idea OREX for next week

OREX had initial huge run on March 3rd, stayed above 7.60 for only 2 days, then traded below 7.60 and had hard time closing above 7.60. It tried to close on several occasions above 7.60 but it failed until March 30th after which had  consecutive  four closings above 7.60. I will be watching it next week for long trade , mostly day trade. It is setting up for swing long, because of which I like it even better for a day trade. I will look for increased volume. How do I know the volume is increased ? It is pretty simple: compare the opening volume on Monday with the opening volume from the previous days.  It can be the first 1 min, 2 min 3 min or 5 min , play with the time frames, draw some lines over the volume bars from the previous days. The price action: I need to see higher lows above 7.60 , and if  I decide to enter long the  7.60 will be my risk. 

Interesting to note :  Very similar set up I had on the long trade CLF back Feb 18  

CLF the long set up explained here . 

The major difference is: CLF was a stock in major daily weekly down trend, while OREX has huge momentum on the upside. I believe the odds for OREX to be a successful long , are much much better the any other stock that is in major down trend. I had CLF break even long BTW although I could have taken great profit with Risk vs Reward 1:4 ,  

CLF break even explained here

                                                   OREX the long set up

Note for brand new traders:

The news and the trend are all in favor for going long. However everything may change in a blink of an eye. Never be 100% sure. Only be 100% sure that trade will go wrong and be 100% sure what will you do if that happens.

Scenario No.1) next week OREX trades below 7.60. I would not touch it for long.

Scenario No.2) gaps up much above 7.60, I will not chase it. I will wait for reasonable pull back towards the 7.60 and will look for possible higher lows on 1min 3min 5min intra day chart. The ideas is to identify a low risk entry with very defined downside against the 7.60 or above . It may be defined with higher lows for example 7.80 7.90 so the long entry will have for example stop loss st below 7.80 ( these are highpathetical examples, I have no idea how will OREX trade next week). But I do have a plan, a vision on how will I execute and how will I define my risk BEFORE i enter the trade. There are many stocks for next week that have almost the identical set up. Im just using OREX for example so a new teader who may be excited buyng something, can learn on how not to lose much if things go wrong. OREX may give a great risk reward, but if I am long and if something happens and OREX starts dropping I would not want to be in it and take bigger then planned loss. I will be in it to win it, or admit I'm wrong and if I can't nail I will bail.

I was in similar trade once , went long , the great news were just poping , stock kept dropping I kept adding to my loser, till i blew an antire account. It always worked till that ONE TRADE.

How I make money shorting when SPY is up on the day TXMD ARWR JCP the winners ALL SHORTS !!

I pretty much stayed on sidelines , did only 2 trades.

The first one ARWR could not find borrows but the plan was right on the money: 

I explained it in all my tweets, how to short at lower highs with very tight stops. Ideal short was the daily swing  high level 7.80 since the selling pressure there would be the biggest and the risk the smallest. All other lower highs were good entries as long as the risk is very tight , I'm talking just few tick against me I'd be covering with scratch or tiny loss.

Click to see  ARWR short explained here.

                                                            ARWR short 7.75

                                                  ARWR the cover for a profit 

The important  factor giving me the short bias on this trade is the daily swing high 7.80. 

I repeat this all the time to myself and I will repeat it again to those who want to trade stocks: If you don't know nothing about trading, or you think you know everything but your account is shrinking,  at least remember to respect the daily support and resistances, and trade against them with tight stops. Know what you stand to lose before you count the hatch. 

TXMD here is when I shorted it 6.50

TXMD the short explained

For the same reason like ARWR, I shorted TXMD. It  was near daily swing high , an area of selling pressure. 

                                              TXMD short 6.50

                   TXMD target reached based upon Risk v.s. Reward  1:2 on day trade scalp

I determine the target by first calculating my risk, then the room for possible move based upon intra day chart support  resistance. I assume the bias for short based upon the daily overextended move up in the last few days. Who ever has been long from 5.50s may be looking to take some profits of the 20% move in such short time.

I will ill update the JCP trade later after closing bell..It is  very related to GMAN short trade a day ago

                                                             GMAN     ( Now observe JCP ..u swee similarity?)

The official warning on buying this break out on JCP click here

April 1st MBI JCP CPL HZNP and SPY observation

 MBI short 9.41 here
This is a overextended daily ticker that opened and spiked into daily swing high 9.50 area. A much better entry was over under 9.50 at the lower intra day high but I did no see it on time. 
But it was still ok shorting 9.41 following the price action of lower highs confirmed with lower lows with good risk reward ratio.

                                 MBI short 9.41

 

                                MBI target reached 
JCP short 

JCP short 8.52 I did not twit this trade had no time for it but here is how it went. And I think this is more important then the winner MBI !!!
JCP was not near daily resistance so I waited to create lower highs to enter this short. It simply did not work out. Not always this set up works , so limiting my risk to minimal is of essence. Never be too sure in any set up. Nothing works 100% of the time. The only note here for myself is the daily resistance which was far above my short entry,  giving the stock room to easily move higher , with that said, higher  risk. This was not as good as the MBI with clearly defined daily resistance to short of. If nothing else , remember one thing: trade of off daily support and resistances.


Example SPY today :  
The 204.30 is daily support. I would NEVER daytrade SPY unless it is near significant daily support or  resistances like today. 

CPL the short 
CPL also was not near daily resistance but was decent short since it stalled before my entry at 12.98. It was a good entry, but was a horrible trade the way I did it. No excuses. Broke my rules for taking profit and obeying break even stop loss. Mentally I wasn't there as I normally I am. It just happens from time to time , specially when I trade alone when I do not tweet it. 
" I can do anything when nobody is watching, what e relief. It is ok to lose when nobody knows ...."  
It is like an alcoholic drinking secretly. 

                                CPL the bad short 
One of the major reasons I exited too late : I was observing the SPY nose diving from the open, and was too confident CPL HAS TO DROP. But it didn't ! Again the price action is THE ONLY indicator that tells the truth when I am wrong.

HZNP short 25.90

HZNP  is chopping here under 26.00. If trades above 26.00 will have to take a loss. Volume around 26.00 is quite high, so it is creating something:  either a strong resistance or maybe accumulation for long? Which ever it is I can never be 100% certain for my bias. I can only know what I stand to lose. 
...............................
..............................
Here is the drop and the bounce , so I had to cover with 5 cents loss since it came back into the channel, no reason to stay short.

                                HZNP the cover with 5 c loss


CPL the second short.
I confirmed very nicely with the lower highs and I had in plan for shorting it again as I tweeted here

                                              CPL the plan for second short
When it was ready for shorting I did not take it because the trading volume looked so thin I was afraid it may be hard to exit if it decides to spike. However it did exactly what it needed to do so I just made a note of it.

                               CPL the planned short drop.

Note: JCP may be great short tomorrow 9.20 area !!