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Friday, March 27, 2015

March 27 OLN OREX RAD How to trade by knowing the Price Action supersedes the news !

Today I decided to dynamically update my trading journal in real time as I am trading, instead of  updating it after the EOD.  Simply because I'd  like to review my own thoughts later on, from a bit different angle which may improve my trading. It  is like being my own mentor or shrink or boss whom I have to report my work. The italic text is written after the EOD.
OLN 
Decline from gap up open, approached daily  swing high 31.50, will look for higher lows , pull backs, for low risk entry. 31.00 should act as support.
Shifting different time frames 1 min 3 min, 5min

                                                                    OLN the plan
OLN did create a pull back opportunity , made double bottom, and took off for a whole $1.00 move straight up after the double bottom. I didn't take the trade because I was just too much mentally involved with the OREX LONG trade that gave me hard time which was all my fault.

OREX
the plan 

Premarket trading at just above major major daily resistance line 7.80.
I am long already 7.80. The news is great. Approval on one of OREX's products in Europe. I chose the stock from pre market scanner but my friend told me the news.
Risk is that daily resistance support line 7.70 /7.80 area .
Anticipation into nice bullish day  if 7.70 holds.
May take some loss if dropping at open , depends how it opens , but re-entry is my focus
The solid lines on daily chart  is today pre-market trading range.
                                                                      OREX long 7.80
I got stopped out soon after the open.
But I  re entered long again at a lower level. Now wait a minute! I said the bullish bias will be only above the daily swing high 7.70. Why did I re-enter long at lower price ? No price action confirmation. Did I try to catch a bounce? A falling knife? Since I started to write this blog I've never done this type of trade. Aaaaah it was the "good news" that made me think this must bounce right!!! I got stopped again. Second loss in a row today. Emotions!!! But I tried to stay calm. I told myself : calm down , you  have no position , analyze  the entire situation like you just set at the desk and you are seeing this stock for the first time today.. So I took few deep breaths and looked over the entire picture . I saw support area in 1 hr chart at 7.50 area. But I told myself: I will not re-enter unless I see some price confirmation first. No catching faling knife again. It is trading on big volume today, I know it will move somewhere , it will give a good entry if I'm patient. 

The first higher high for the day ! will this low be a higher low?

And yes it was a higher low. Now I have something!

Making a wicky 5 min candles , is sign buyers are stepping in below 7.50. and may not let it go  below apparently. That is the reasonable expectation as result of the most current price action. I have to admit I'm little stubborn here because of the good news. But I do have higher high confirmation , the ascending trend lines , higher lows,  several 5 min doggy candles at over under 7.50 support resistance level. Now odds are better then catching a falling knife!!!

As you can see the third entry was the one that was confirmed with higher highs and higher lows. My entry at 7.50 was twice the size. Risk reward was 1:3 But what happened next. How far up did OREX go?
Did I take the profit the market gave me? 
Well it went above 7.70 and I did not sell!!
And what is 7.70? 
It is the main swing resistance on which I was planning my long trade pre market, at that time support. Knowing that 7.70 support is now a resistance, knowing that I was already up 1:3 risk reward reached, and having the double the original size, I still did not take profit. What was  thinking? Home run for sure. Why? THE GOOD NEWS implanted in my mind from the pre market. And ths is how it went further :

OREX intraday bullish confirmation I am adding to long only on a winner never on a loser.

I added some more on this pullback 7.63 which it was not a  bad idea but only  IF I HAD ALREADY TAKEN SOME PROFIT  at 7.70 or above ! Sure enough went below 7.60 and got stopped on entire position and ended the day red. 
Why I did this? 
Because of THE GOOD NEWS. It was just implanted in my mind the belief that this OREX must close above 7.80  today. Well,  it doesn't have to! Maybe will be good trade in the next few days, like the RAD long trade today that I did not take  and  had it on watch from couple days ago.
    See RAD post here 
I haven't done this mistake in a long time , but today it just happened. 
The implications are multiple:
Not only I have lost on the trade , but I was impaired to take action on other great set ups all day today such as the above mentioned OLN, RAD and many other great trades that I had in plan, that I was fully aware I could take them, that were right in front of my nose. Looking for a home rum on a GOOD NEWS is not a smart thing a trader can do.

And this is why I spend time writing about it. So I will not repeat it again. And yes I will read it over again from time to time just to remind myself that no matter how disciplined I am , I may always be wrong and make mistakes. Avoid them as much as you can.


To conclude and to note to myself: 

It is OK to know , and to be aware of the news, but FIRST FOLLOW THE PRICE ACTION, have a confirmation for the trend I expect to be as result of the news, but do not take action till  you see confirmation. Do not go on yellow light. Go on the GREEN LIGHT!!! 





2 comments:

  1. Great blog post! You are right every newbie needs to read this. It it too easy to be influenced by good news or earnings.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanx Ed.
    I lost a tons of money day trading only upon the news. Normaly people wont belive this till they get burned on their own.

    ReplyDelete