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Friday, April 17, 2015

ZBB NFLX the green shorts

ZBB  This is what I was looking for here
Overextended daily
Smart(er) investors long from few days ago might be locking gains after quick gains in the pocket.
When the stock picked and made new daily high , the RSI was already into downtrend from its high, so I was waiting for that divergence. Then I timed the entry by chart, calculating 1:2 risk reward and short 1.21 with cover 1.13 for 8 cents gain by risking 4 or less. I could have easily exited with less then 4 cents loss if I sew buyers are loading up. Luckily that was not the case and longs were taking profits.
                                            ZBB  short 1.21 cover 1.13   RR 1:2  ( RSI )
                                                ZBB   EOD

NFLX this is when I alerted it a seconds after my entry. Do not try to shadow trading or copy my trades.This is only for educational purposes and I tweet real time so I do not over-trade, and I avoid any stupid without explanation trades.
NFLX aas very similar to ZBB, just much higher priced stock then ZBB


                                                                   NFLX  the short
NFLX the cover
                                                                     NFLX  EOD

Stay green and stay disciplined
Salute !

Thursday, April 16, 2015

April 16th ADXS VTG PBR shorts CLRX TASR longs

     VTG
When I was planning this, I really wanted to see it push to 0.70 to short it. But after it topped out at 0.60 showed weakness and shorted 0.57 with 3 cents risk, Took 6 cents gain 1:2 RR, left money at the table but on long term works better for me. Daily levels are primary reference points for me.
Sometimes I use RSI divergence for more undefined daily resistances. Ideally  is when daily resistances and RSI  are in confluence.
                                                             VTG
Second short was the break below over under risk limit 0.50 took short 0.477 ish  with stop 0.50 it picked above 0.50 but did not close above it. Covered it at br. even on the second try .
                                                      VTG break even second short

      ADXS  tweeted my entry and plan here
This showed weakness yesterday had  big drop, today a pull up almost parabolic. I was having it on watch for low risk entry tried shorting twice, second time worked as a charm. Took 1:2 gain left some for a home run and it did it.
                                                 ADXS second try short
                                                   ADXS  partial cover
                                                    ADXS the final cover

      PBR
PBR was Dejavu play from yesterday same levels of battle 8.80 o/u . Shorted 8.76  used RSI divergence tested HOD , but did what it was suppose to do , recycled it few times after I saw Lower Lows and Lower Highs in place ( channel play)

                                           PBR   RSI divergence short of today highs
                PBR final EOD photo  lots of volatility probably Oil news were all over CNBC or so?!?


      CLRX
Got long after a saw gaping up above major daily levels, had my stop LOD , and obeyed it , so I consider it as good loosing trade.
                                                         CLRX the long loser
      TASR
This was a long  ( darn I hate long trades , on long run I have very low accuracy and seems I shall never go long again). TASR broke major daily level 28.00.  I was sure it will hold like many other gurus betting on this ABCD 50/50  ?!? strategy , but for me works very rarely , maybe less the 50/50 ?!? Who da' hell knows. Unless it is entire float in play on huge volume this may be good one. Took my loss and moved on .
                                                         TASR ABCD crap
    TASR Question: Shall I short this divergence on first day of primary break out move ?

     When shorting many times I question myself when is better to short: on the first , second or  third day of a major run up, or maybe after it goes over the hill and then short after it is clearly weak like ADXS today? No matter when I short it  I'd say must limit the risk, before entering I shall never assume this will drop down. It may run much higher then I can imagine. Seen it many times, and have blown accounts being sure stock will do what I expect. Before I enter a trade I assure myself I will be wrong. I know its very counter-intuitive but in trading must have pessimistic approach with fear of losing rather then confidence of making the easy money. There is no easy money. I just believe in making money by doing what I like to do rather then what I must do.

     Stay Disciplined and stay green!
     Salute


Wednesday, April 15, 2015

April 15 A small green day $TEDU $KEG $PBR

TEDU
I was really wanting this to go higher but 13.50 area was ok to take the chance short 13.41 covered 13.24 for 17 c gain.  It worked just fine. As always leaving money at the table is ok.
                                                                      TEDU
Then I got lucky on long with daily support risk level 13.12 . Again : A DAILY support. I say lucky because I'm just not having good track longing stocks. From 13.28 went only to 13.38 before closing bell.
Click Here: I tweeted the risk reward plan off of the daily support
                                                            TEDU long 13.28
                                                       TEDU    closed with 10c gain only
KEG
KEG click here for the short entry explained with risk reward
On this one I felt like I was Tim Sykes, like somebody followed my tweet and slammed with size shorting it. After this I didn't feel like tweeting any more. I thought it will go much lower, so I never locked in gains. Broke even ( -$0.01 loss) Was I able to short it again? At 2.35ish? Sure but I'm just not focused enough. Need to do something about it. Maybe trade in a room with few more trades, like in an office or something ..Something to think about in future.
                                                         KEG short  2.26
                                                      KEG  brake even cover
PBR 
This is Brazilian huge cap company, and it just did not worked out the shorting here .But since it is well overextended will keep it on watch. Big boys hedge fund managers will take profits soon and  they may re-buy on dips.
                                              PBR short 8.76 covered 8.80 with 4 c loss.

Over all nice little green day, most importantly did not brake any rules, and was disciplined
Salute Stay green and disciplined

Note  reference to one of my buddies trade BIND :
He shorted it by chasing into the drop right of the open into major daily support 7.60. Yes it could have broken that support , but it DIDN'T.
He had 7 green days in a row, with NOT SINGLE LOSING TRADE !!! A great trader with tons of experience.
Then he got mentally frozen, He watched it go totally opposite and covered way too late in hope it will drop down, It is extremely hard when your mind "convinces you" a stock must go your way, spatially when you had winner after winner for 7 days in a row!! Always Always be sure that YOU WILL BE WRONG and when you are proven wrong make sure what you will do before you enter the trade. It is the hardest part in trading, takes years to overcame it, but must have that mental  strength and the only way to have it is to have a plan that you will execute exactly as outlined before entering the trade.
There are trades entries where I expect an immediate momentum move in my direction due to certain factors, like big size on the bid or major level break out, I enter the trade very quickly so I will not miss the move. Next thing I see : it is ticking few cents against me. So I rushed to get in , in fear not to miss the move , and now I see ticking against me, so what I rushed for is NOT HAPPENING , I GET OUT ASAP. It is that simple. And what happened? ONE THING FOR SURE : I DIDN NOT LOSE !! Minor loss few pennies is just as scratch. 
                  BIND the extreme pain inflicted shorting 7.60 with only "hope" on your side
In trading we are own worst enemies!
Stay disciplined have plan and obey it!
Salute!






Tuesday, April 14, 2015

CCCL WUBA BLDR TEDU



Red day for me today. I  have only one regret WUBA I shorted it at its first day on a major break out above 60.00.

CCCL overextended few days in a row. was just per plan went just fine as expected. Lot of overhead resistance does help a lot when shorting. I really need to be more patient and search for those. Left a lot at the table but have no regrets for that. On long term it is better to lock in  the reasonable risk  vs reward.

CCCL

                                                                      CCCL
                                                                      CCCL
                                                                    CCCL

 BLDR
I have no regrets taking this short , and when I get stopped per plan it is OK, did not break my rules.
Tried again , limited the risk , and broke even on the second try .  It was increased volume at the up move that told me to get out.

                                                              BLDR the first short
                                                               BLDR stopped out
                                                      BLDR tried again short
                                     BLDR  break even cover  'caus of volume coming in


WUBA
This one was on its first day run. only here I have regret for shorting it. Normally  on the first day of major break out on daily I try not to short but I had to trade  I guess. Will keep it on watch the next few days for  sure , lest see how far up it goes. And Ill be ready for weakness.

                                                                WUBA
                                                               WUBA
                                              WUBA  avoid shorting first day break outs

TEDU
This just did not work, have no regrets. I will look for it to get to 14.00 area to short again.
SImilar liek WUBA , TEDY was trading above major break out level 12.45. Some times it works, some times it doesnt. I certainly could not go long on it after the daily over-extension. Just not me. Did that and lost big in the past,

                                                         TEDU
                      TEDU  I didn't think of re-entry  ( too scared after couple losses?!?!
                             If I have a sytem that works , why losing faith ?!?

If trading was easy and the set ups worked all the times everybody would only trade.
Not everyone is made for trading.
I accept the red days as part of this business and stay disciplined.
I do not tray to have green day by braking my rules. (adding to a loser, not obeying stops e.c.t.)I did that in the past  it worked 99% of the time til that one trade happened and got burned.
It takes one trade one day to ruin your acct. never forget that.

Stay disciplined
Salute !

Monday, April 13, 2015

Apr 13 How I use RSI on ADXS AMCN ADMP ORMP even SPY


ADXS 
When the stock is not at a daily level that I like it to be in order to short it, I may use RSI to help me time the short entry. In this case ADXS has not arrived to any daily overhead resistance , ( it makes all new highs). It is definitely overextended but guessing the short is not that easy and I may get squeezed many times till I nail it. So using the divergence in the RSI for me works quite all right.
DIVERGENCE means the price of the stock, the trend of the stock is opposite of the RSI  trend for the same time frame as shown on this chart ADXS.
                             ADXS RSI divergence pointed a prefect short today
                                                             ADXS   at EOD update

More precisely said: At the points where ADXS had same level double tops, the RSI did not have same level double tops. The RSI had lower highs which is opposite of the double tops on ADXS. That is the divergence. Draw the trend line on the RSI connecting the lower highs and draw a trend line connecting the highs of the ADXS price chart
The entry is at break below the lower green trend line on the 1 min chart in this particular case

AMCN
Similar to ADXS , AMCN did not get to my desired daily level of 3.70 ( daily swing high from last week). So  what do I do then? I'd rather wait to get to 3.70 but the temptation is high that sometimes I have to trade. But if I have to trade , at least I will trade by certain rule and tool I keep in my trading arsenal. There is the divergence clearly drawn on the chart below.
                                                          AMCN  RSI divergence
                                                        AMCN at End Of Day
I always put my daily chart so I can see it and know the daily main pivot points. Those are the levels of my prime , MY  MAIN  interest. It is so important for me,  like using the rear view mirror when driving a car and changing lanes. I just can not trade without daily chart open at all the time .
AMCN will definitely be on my watch tomorrow for possible short 3.70 all  depends on how it will trade and the entire price action around that level, how it will get there , how will act there and so on.

ADMP
Same as the two above ADMP ( not trade-able due to big spread for me ).
The only difference is ADMP had nice overhead daily resistance 5.18 area.
RSI divergence , break the red trend line is entry short and risk reward favorable too.

                                                 ADMP daily resistance AND RSI divergence
                                                ADMP at EOD update bad spread all day

SPY
Using confluence when trading is very important.
SPY collided into the daily descending trend line today.
( I AM SO INTO THE DAILY LEVELS AS MY MAIN PINTS OF INTERESTS)
RSI divergence is happening at the same time intra-day so I have :
CONFLUENCE of two major factors (this is my trading opinion, works for me)
Even the SPY which I hate to trade because of so much choppiness gave a nice short today.
                                                      SPY daily is left , intra-day is right

ORMP 
I will rather short it at 10.18 daily main resistance but here is not bad risk reward. I can always enter and exit immediately if I am wrong. I keep in mind it can easily run to 10.18 so being ready to exit at the first sign that I am wrong is very essential.
                                                           ORMP the plan
                                                  ORMP the RSI divergence in effect
                                                    ORMP   EOD update

It was a nasty fade,  risk reward well worth it this time but it is not always as easy as it was today. I think having the SPYs fading all day from a major daily resistance contributed for this short to work flawlessly.

Stay disciplined and stay green !
Salute !

Friday, April 10, 2015

April 10th QTM trade thoughts $PSTR the plan for short, VLTC no borrows, HERO

 QTM short 1.79  This is how it looked at time of entry

 It was literally in channel trading after gap up open on a news (good ER) , with overhead resistance 1.83 but also with support 1.77, not too much upside and for downside needed a break below 1.75ish , It was not a clear over-extension  like the other past trades like SFUN SFY see past few days posts. However risking very little on it is always a good thing. After the entry I saw quite a big size traded at the bid almost 200,000 shares  , which normally should clear the bid and drop the bid lower. However  bid went up , so it meant somebody had fishing orders put at bid to accumulate I would guess.  And here it is, trading higher. I just cant go long QTM today  that's  just me.
                        QTM the volume after the entry was  a tell tell to look for exit

PSTR hesitating to short since I just do not like the spread today

PSTR the plan tweeted here

PSTR  the PLAN  but bad spread stopped me from taking action here
Knowing myself  I am veryemotional when something I planned did not execute because of outside factors, like the spread. So I quit for today , since I had a quite good green week.
For my record this is what happen to PSTR today.

                                                     PSTR
The marked points ( the 6.00) was the line in sand for any additional short entries.

VLTC was unshortable ( no borrows) so I put it only for my record.
 VLTC

HERO I was eyeballing this from yesterday, but no action for me today. It was a nice gapper after being so overextended , quite good risk reward for a day trade .
                                                    HERO

Sometimes it's ok not to trade , it gives me time to reflect more. It allows me to study what really works the best. I guess this is a big achievement for me in very positive direction. I laugh at myself when I look back, This used to be me not too long ago LOL
                                What was I thinking ?!?! I don even remember..

Salute and stay green !